Current versions of key charts from Ahead of the Curve including commentary
Links to data used in Ahead of the Curve
Economic and stock-market cycles affect companies, individuals, and investors in every industry. However, the confusing barrage of anecdotal and conflicting indicators we face every day, week, and month renders it impossible for managers and investors to see where the economy is heading in time to take corrective action.
In Ahead of the Curve, a thirty-five-year Wall Street veteran unveils a new forecasting method and working model that puts these indicators into context and will enable managers and investors to understand and predict the economic cycles and related stock-market movements that control their businesses and financial fates. In this book, you will see that the problem with current forecasting models lies not in the data, but rather in the lack of a clear framework for presenting the data in context and reading it correctly.
Following 3 SIMPLE RULES will allow the reader to materially improve his or her ability both to monitor the key leading indicators of economic activity and the stock market and place these indicators in a chronology that greatly simplifies forecasting.
Economic events are not as random and unpredictable as they seem. This book will help readers recognize and react to signs of change that their rivals don’t see—and win a sizeable competitive advantage.
About the Author:
Joseph H. Ellis was a partner of Goldman Sachs and was ranked for eighteen consecutive years by Institutional Investor magazine as Wall Street’s #1 retail-industry analyst.
About the Website:
This website contains 20 of the key charts from Ahead of the Curve, continually updated, so that readers will be able to apply the book’s key insights to today’s latest reported data.
10/6/13: Charts updated with data current to 9/30/13. Note: Due to the current government financial situation, data from the Bureau of Economic Analysis is not available.
8/21/2012: Current commentary updated.
6/24/2012: Data links updated to reflect changes in Bureau of Economic Analysis website.
2/3/2006: Joseph Ellis interviewed on NPR’s Marketplace Money
2/03/2006: Part 2 of John Mauldin’s Thoughts from the Frontline column (registration required)
1/7/2006: Part 1 of John Mauldin’s Thoughts from the Frontline column about Ahead of the Curve
Read an excerpt from the book, "Redefining Economic Downturns," in the Harvard Business School Working Knowledge newsletter