How to Read the Signs of Economic Change—Before They Impact Your Business and Investments

Economic and stock-market cycles affect companies in every industry. Unfortunately, the confusing barrage of anecdotal and conflicting indicators we face every day, week, and month renders it impossible for managers and investors to see where the economy is heading in time to take corrective action.

Now, a thirty-five-year Wall Street veteran unveils a new forecasting method and working model that puts these indicators into context and will enable managers and investors to understand and predict the economic cycles and related stock-market movements that control their businesses and financial fates. In Ahead of the Curve, Joseph H. Ellis argues that the problem with current forecasting models lies not in the data, but rather in the lack of a clear framework for putting the data in context and reading it correctly.

The book (1) explains critical economic indicators in nontechnical language, (2) identifies and documents the recurring cause-and-effect relationships that consistently predict turning points in the economy, and (3) provides the tools, including highly readable charts, that managers and investors need to position themselves ahead of cyclical upturns and downturns.

This website contains 20 of the key charts from Ahead of the Curve, continually updated, so that readers will be able to apply the book’s key insights to today’s latest reported data.

Economic events are not as random and unpredictable as they seem. This book will help readers recognize and react to signs of change that their rivals don’t see—and win a sizeable competitive advantage.

About the Author:
Joseph H. Ellis was a partner of Goldman Sachs and was ranked for eighteen consecutive years by Institutional Investor magazine as Wall Street’s #1 retail-industry analyst.

March 11, 2009: Charts updated with data current to March 9.

February 19, 2009: links to Bureau of Economic Analysis updated to match changes to site interface.

January 1, 2009: charts updated to include 2007-2008 recession and bear markets. Current commentary updated.

February 3, 2006: Joseph Ellis interviewed on NPR’s Marketplace Money

February 3, 2006: Part 2 of John Mauldin’s Thoughts from the Frontline column

January 27, 2006: Part 1 of John Mauldin’s Thoughts from the Frontline column about Ahead of the Curve

Read an excerpt from the book, "Redefining Economic Downturns," in the Harvard Business School Working Knowledge newsletter