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Figure 9-3: Consumer sentiment surveys: Coincident, not leading, indicators
Figure 9-3
The Consumer Confidence Index (compiled by The Conference Board) and the University of Michigan’s Consumer Sentiment Index are based largely on questions asked of consumers regarding their expectations of future economic conditions. The indices are, however, largely coincident in their relationship to Y/Y consumer spending. This is because consumers’ attitudes toward the future, manifested in answers given today to questions asked today, reflect today’s economic inputs and sentiments. Neither index, therefore, has proved to have significant predictive value.
Sources: Consumer Confidence Index: Conference Board
Consumer Sentiment Index: 11/01/1952-11/01/1977: St. Louis Fed Consumer Sentiment Index: 01/01/1978-present: St. Louis Fed
Updated: 10/3/15