Current versions of key charts from Ahead of the Curve including commentary
Links to data used in Ahead of the Curve
Charts from Ahead of the Curve
Ahead of the Curve presents a new forecasting method and working model for monitoring the economic indicator cause-and-effect relationships that have consistently driven economic cycles over the past 50 years and remain key drivers today. Despite some structural changes in the economy over the past 50 years, these continue to be essential in predicting economic advances and slowdowns and the bull and bear markets that, with surprising consistency, accompany them. Because charts in Ahead of the Curve end at the end of December 2004, the following charts from the book are presented on an updated basis to provide readers with the most recent data in the context of these charts.
The following points will be useful in using these charts:
- Data in most charts is presented in terms of year-over-year rate of change.
- Vertical yellow bars in most charts denote bear markets (declines in the S&P 500 Index of 12% or more). IMPORTANT: The leading edge (left side) of the vertical yellow bars are thus stock market peaks, and the trailing edge (right side) are stock market troughs.
- Black bars at the bottoms of most charts denote recession, an economic measurement described in Ahead of the Curve as “a generally lagging and useless measure of economic harm.”
- For printing purposes, select “landscape” for best results.