Ahead of the Curve book jacket
Ahead of the Curve
URLs for current data:
Figure 4-1: Economic growth, recessions, and the stock market: A REMARKABLE CONSISTENCY
Real gross domestic product: Bureau of Economic Analysis
Figure 7-3: real consumer spending (PCE) and industrial production: The volatile effects of the inventory cycle
Real personal consumption expenditures: Bureau of Economic Analysis
Industrial production (manufacturing): Federal Reserve
Figure 7-5: Swings in industrial production drive changes in real capital spending
Industrial production (manufacturing): Federal Reserve
Real capital spending: Bureau of Economic Analysis
Figure 7-7: Swings in real consumer spending (PCE) drive changes in real capital spending
Real personal consumption expenditures: Bureau of Economic Analysis
Real capital spending: Bureau of Economic Analysis
Figure 8-4: Bear markets begin when growth in real consumer spending (PCE) peaks and begins to slow
Real personal consumption expenditures: Bureau of Economic Analysis
S&P 500 operating earnings per share: Standard & Poors
Figure 9-3: Sentiment surveys: Coincident, not leading, indicators
Consumer Confidence Index: Conference Board
Consumer Sentiment Index: 11/01/1952-11/01/1977: St. Louis Fed
Consumer Sentiment Index: 01/01/1978-present: St. Louis Fed
Figure 10-4: How inflation affects growth in real average hourly earnings
Personal consumption expenditure deflator: Bureau of Economic Analysis
Average hourly earnings: Bureau of Labor Statistics
Figure 10-7: Real hourly earnings: Best leading indicator of real consumer spending (PCE) downturns
Real personal consumption expenditures: Bureau of Economic Analysis
Average hourly earnings: Bureau of Labor Statistics
Figure 10-9: Growth in employment and borrowing “leverages up” real hourly earnings
Real personal consumption expenditures: Bureau of Economic Analysis
Average hourly earnings: Bureau of Labor Statistics
Figure 10-10: real hourly earnings: A useful leading indicator of stock market declines
Real personal consumption expenditures: Bureau of Economic Analysis
Average hourly earnings: Bureau of Labor Statistics
Supplemental Figure: Saving Rate
Saving Rate: Bureau of Economic Analysis
Figure 11-3: Employment’s lagging relationship to consumer spending (PCE)
Real personal consumption expenditures: Bureau of Economic Analysis
Civilian employment level: Bureau of Labor Statistics
Figure 11-6: The unemployment rate’s lagging relationship to real consumer spending (PCE)
Real personal consumption expenditures: Bureau of Economic Analysis
Civilian unemployment rate: Bureau of Labor Statistics
Figure 11-8: The unemployment trap: Unemployment and the bear market
Real personal consumption expenditures: Bureau of Economic Analysis
Civilian unemployment rate: Bureau of Labor Statistics
Figure 11-11: Combined year-over-year increases in employment and real wage growth approximate growth in real consumer spending (PCE)
Civilian employment level: Bureau of Labor Statistics
Average hourly earnings: Bureau of Labor Statistics
Real personal consumption expenditures: Bureau of Economic Analysis
Figure 12-2: The discount or fed funds rate as a leading indicator of real consumer spending (PCE)
Real personal consumption expenditures: Bureau of Economic Analysis
Discount rate: Federal Reserve H.15
Federal funds effective rate: Federal Reserve H.15
Figure 12-4: Inflation drives interest rates
PCE deflator: Bureau of Economic Analysis
Discount rate: Federal Reserve H.15
Federal funds effective rate: Federal Reserve H.15
Figure 13-2: Rising discount/fed funds rates: A harbinger of bear markets
Real personal consumption expenditures: Bureau of Economic Analysis
Discount rate: Federal Reserve H.15
Federal funds effective rate: Federal Reserve H.15
Figure 13-3: Long-term interest-rate changes and the stock market
10yr yield on treasury securities: Federal Reserve H.15
Figure 14-2: Increases in total domestic debt drive the prime rate
Domestic nonfinancial sectors, total debt: Federal Reserve Z.1
Prime rate: Federal Reserve H.15
Figure 14-3: Increases in total domestic debt drive the 10-year Treasury yield
Domestic nonfinancial sectors, total debt: Federal Reserve Z.1
10yr yield on treasury securities: Federal Reserve H.15