As a substantially lagging indicator, the unemployment rate (green line) appears favorable (lowest/inverted) well after consumer-spending growth (black line) has peaked and the bear market (vertical yellow bars) has been under way for some time. Bear markets typically end when the unemployment rate finally worsens significantly, increasing by 1% or more (see circles). This may reflect a selling crescendo spurred by misplaced fears that higher unemployment is a sign of an even poorer economy ahead. Those who understand unemployment’s lagging—and therefore deceptive—nature will avoid this trap.